The intent of every Fed rate hike cycle is to slow the economy. Whether the cycle is driven by a fear of the economy overheating (the last five cycles prior to this one) or is precipitated by already present inflationary pressures (the late-70s and early-80s cycles), the intent is to slow things down. Over the years, and for good reason, bond investors have been conditioned to anticipate an economic recession from Fed rate hike cycles. In other words, more often that not, a Fed rate hike cycle ultimately leads to a recession. In fact, six of the past seven rate hike cycles, going back to the late-1970s, led to an economic recession.

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