Hard or Soft Landing and Why It Matters for Bond Investors

The intent of every Fed rate hike cycle is to slow the economy. Whether the cycle is driven by a fear of the economy overheating (the last five cycles prior to this one) or is precipitated by already present inflationary pressures (the late-70s and early-80s cycles), the intent is to slow things down. Over the […]

SPAX Q2 2022 Commentary & Outlook

The Robinson Alternative Yield Pre-Merger SPAC ETF (ticker: SPAX) completed its first full year. The Fund returned 0.22% for the second quarter of 2022 on a price basis and 2.49% for its first full year; it returned a negative 0.06% on a net asset value basis for the quarter and 2.30% for the year. Following […]

How to Benefit from a Hawkish Federal Reserve

Few asset classes benefit from a hawkish Fed. Rising interest rates usually hurt most traditional stock and bond valuations. Given the Fed’s intent in raising short-term rates is to slow the economy, more often than not a Fed rate hike cycle has usually ended in an economic recession. Even if the tightening cycle doesn’t end […]

Absolute Return: Bringing Calm to a Volatile Market

Adding Value Through the Use of Pre-Merger Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (“SPACs”) Investors are challenged to navigate the uncertainty and volatility in today’s market. This should come as no surprise to any investor given the global geopolitical risks, supply chain disruptions, the uncertainty around central bank(s) tightening, inverted yield curves, spiking inflation at 40 year […]

How’s your 60/40 model Working?

Why Pre-Merger SPACs May Offer A Fix To The Broken 60/40 Model We’ve been discussing the broken 60/40 Model for a few years now. It’s not that we have anything against bonds—I’ve been a bond manager for 37 years—it’s simply because bond yields are at a level where they are mathematically incapable of providing a […]

SPAX Q1 2022 Commentary & Outlook

The Robinson Alternative Yield Pre-Merger SPAC ETF (ticker: SPAX) completed its third full quarter. The Fund returned 0.06% for the quarter on a price basis and 2.27% for its first three quarters; it returned 0.02% on a net asset value basis for the quarter and 2.35% for the three quarters. Following is the Q1 2022 […]

Behavior of Various Fixed Income Strategies in a Fed Tightening Cycle

As the bond market prepares for the start of a Fed rate hike cycle, we decided to look back at the previous rate hike cycles in which the Fed moved at least 1.75% (Wall Street’s consensus for rate hikes this year). There have been eight such cycles over the past 50 years.  Typically, the bond […]

Behavior of Various Fixed Income Strategies in a Fed Tightening Cycle

As the bond market prepares for the start of a Fed rate hike cycle, we decided to look back at the previous rate hike cycles in which the Fed moved at least 1.75% (Wall Street’s consensus for rate hikes this year). There have been eight such cycles over the past 50 years.  Typically, the bond […]

How to Address Low Yields and Rising Rates

Despite your views, it’s all over the news. BLOOMBERG: “Investors throw cash at any ETF with inflation in the name.”  INVESTING.COM: “Inflation readings come in screaming hot.” YAHOO FINANCE: “Google searches reveal people are growing very worried about inflation.” The accelerating pace of inflation is one of the main economic trends of 2021. Higher rates […]

Forget Everything You Know About SPACs

How is Smart Money Investing in SPACs? SPACs have historically been marketed and sensationalized by the financial media as a way for retail investors to participate in the next Tesla or Amazon IPO.1 While exciting to talk about, what if I told you that’s not how hedge funds, institutional investors and ultra-high net worth individuals […]